EUR/USD, Technical Analysis – H1
The medium-term bullish trend has already completed a full 7-wave structure — an unusually extended sequence for current market conditions. While trend theory indicates that markets generally find it easier to continue an existing trend than to reverse it, under the present circumstances it appears increasingly unlikely that buyers will find the resources for a ninth wave. This raises the risk of a breakdown through all local supports, with prices potentially falling back to the origin levels near 1.1380.
Key Levels:
□ 1.1550 — resistance
□ 1.1470 — near-term support
□ 1.1450 — support
□ 1.1400 — support
□ 1.1380 — major support
Primary Scenario:
Decline toward 1.1470 and 1.1450, with further targets at 1.1400 and 1.1380.
Alternative Scenario:
Rebound higher from 1.1470 and recovery toward 1.1520.
Analyst Commentary:
Counter-trend trades always carry elevated risk.