Brent Crude Oil Morning Brief – June 24, 2026
The multi-week unwind in global energy markets has entered a more aggressive phase, driven by record-shattering transit volumes and direct executive pressure from Washington. Brent crude is under sustained pressure, currently trading at $76.32 per barrel. This latest leg down follows a public declaration from President Donald Trump, who announced that an absolute record of 19 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Citing this massive surge in shipping as proof of an easing geopolitical risk premium, Trump explicitly stated his expectation for global benchmarks to drop toward $70.00 per barrel.
The structural supply shift is highly visible across the Atlantic, where WTI crude has now collapsed by 34% from its peak of $112.00 per barrel recorded on April 12. This brings American crude prices directly back to their historical 20-year average and has dragged national retail gasoline below $4.00 per gallon. This drop has sparked immediate friction between the White House and the energy sector; Trump accused major oil firms of artificially slowing down price cuts at the pump and ordered the Department of Justice to launch an immediate investigation into corporate price gouging.
Amid this bearish macroeconomic backdrop, physical traders are focused entirely on the upcoming U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, scheduled for release at 10:30 AM Eastern Time (14:30 GMT). The market is looking to these weekly figures to verify if underlying commercial demand can absorb the accelerating influx of Middle Eastern barrels.
Market Outlook: The short-term path of least resistance for Brent crude remains heavily skewed to the downside. Sellers are looking to force a clean break below the immediate $76.00 support level, which would clear a path toward the $74.50 area and eventually Trump's $70.00 target. To reverse this momentum, a potential bullish trigger from the EIA data would have to be substantial enough to breach heavy overhead technical resistance at $78.50, where institutional desks are positioned to cap near-term counter-trend rallies.